EV Adoption | Consumer Action

Electric vehicle adoption gathers pace

Why EVs will replace ICE vehicles sooner than you think

Published April 2023 | Revised Nov 2023

In 2021, 86% of new vehicle sales in Norway were Electric Vehicles (EV). That number was 72% in Iceland and 43% in Sweden. Countries across europe have committed to effectively banning the sale of Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles effective from 2035. Whilst less coordinated, states across the US are setting similar targets ranging from 2035 proposed in California to 2030 proposed in Washington.

The pace of EV adoption has caught many in the industry by surprise. In Australia, there appears to be a disconnect between government policies and the public’s appetite for EVs. This is clearly shaping up to be the decade of the EV, and we are not even in the middle of the decade yet. Almost every single major car manufacturer has committed to an electrified future.

It all sounds good, but there are dark clouds ahead. Not every corporation will succeed in this transition from ICE to EVs. Apple is rumoured to be planning to enter the EV market and that’s been going on for years now. Dyson tried and failed. Range anxiety has not gone away even with the remarkable performance of the Lucid Air, reaching over 500miles on a single charge.

Charging infrastructure is still a fraction of what will be needed. Toyota, the world's largest car manufacturer, is not in full EV-mode yet. And some commentators have questioned the green credentials of EVs outright.

We are, however, at the beginning of a major evolution in transportation and mobility. Over the next decade or so, we will swap-out ICE vehicles for EVs on our road network. EVs will eventually become the dominant mode of road transport because they are greener than ICE vehicles, and consumers will see this transition through. Here’s why.

They are personal to the consumer

We love our homes. We love our phones. We love our cars. When something becomes personal to the consumer, they buy with their hearts and heads. Unlike things like taxes and bills that we generally see as negative expenditures even though they are central to functioning societies, our homes, cars, phones, and pets have found a place in our hearts, and we spend on them accordingly.

EVs have entered this class of things with a bit more presence than ICE vehicles ever did. Perhaps it is because of the Tesla-inspired approach of placing a tablet-sized screen as a focal point in the car. That puts two things we love together, and every other manufacturer is doing a variation of the same thing because it is just so effective.

Although they are depreciating assets unlike our homes, the personal freedom that car ownership has come to signify is one of the most potent reasons that consumers will continue to buy them at almost any cost, like buying homes have become in most markets.

This personal nature of our relationship with our cars is one of the main reasons that EVs will form a significant part of our transition to sustainable energy sourcing. As governments legislate for lower emissions and corporations produce better, efficient vehicles; consumers, who are already in love with the idea of an EV, will accelerate their adoption.

They are greener whatever the critics say

There is debate out there about whether EVs are greener than the ICE vehicles . This can be found in countless articles, videos, and discussion boards across the internet. Some of the concerns are valid and are from seasoned industry professionals, others are simply the ramblings of people with an agenda to push.

The coherent arguments try to compare the lifecycle carbon impact of EVs with ICE vehicle using real-world and estimated data. They point to the relatively higher carbon impact of producing EVs, especially the batteries.

Whilst most acknowledge that EVs are greener to operate as they have no carbon emissions in operation, recharging them with electricity generated from fossil fuels is highlighted as a negative that increases the carbon intensity of EVs during operation.

In the less coherent arguments, they bring up ethical issues related to mining Cobalt (used in batteries) and the water-intensive nature of the mining of lithium. Some also raise concerns about whether the grid can support millions of EVs entering the roads. All valid points but lacking contexts that are relevant to the debate.

At Sterawatt, our research shows that EVs are not just greener than ICE, their advent will help accelerate the deployment of technological advances that will transcend the mobility sector. We don’t just see EVs as greener than ICE, they are the successor to the ICE vehicles, and they should be embraced for the range of good that worthy successors often bring to the table.

The consumer today is savvier than ever, and more people are beginning to care about their carbon footprint and their legacy. People want to do whatever they can to support the environment, and buying EVs is clearly a good choice that they can all get on board with.

Advances will be useful elsewhere

By transitioning mobility to sustainable electricity, we see a prototype for how we can transform agriculture, industry, and other sectors from a reliance on fossil fuel to sustainable energy sources. The production and use of energy is the real price here, not mobility itself.

Fossil fuels have powered all sectors of our economies for decades, and their emissions are damaging our planet. Cleaning up an entire sector of the economy gives us a model that can be deployed to clean up other sectors.

Cleaning up mobility will result in the development of technologies that can be carried over into other industries. As our batteries get better, we see a use for them in residential and commercial settings. The lessons carried over will result in better efficiencies and economies of scale.

Tesla is credited with dragging the vehicle manufacturing industry into this transition, and they look set to be winners in this transition. But the transition is so big and has become so unstoppable that there will be many winners and some losers.

We are in the midst of the EV decade, and the future of the ICE vehicles will be in show events and special occasions, much like where the horses that ICE vehicles replaced found continued use.

Further reading: | iea.org : Global EV Outlook 2022 |