Electrification

The electrification gamble

Can electricity meet all our energy needs?

Published March 2023 | Revised Nov 2023

At its investor day presentation in March 2023, the sustainable energy supercorporation, Tesla, presented its case for transitioning the world's economy to sustainable energy . The company posited that the efficiency gains that electrification will bring could halve our current total energy consumption which stood at 165,000 TWh/yr as at the end of 2022.

It calculated that only a third of current energy production delivers useful work or heat, with the rest largely lost to waste in the energy value chain. It stated that we could achieve a sustainable energy economy with 82,000 TWh/yr produced sustainably and deployed efficiently.

So, can electricity meet all our energy needs? Yes, it can. We have mastered the technologies necessary to electrify our entire energy value chain and transform our entire economy to sustainable energy sources.

Our current limitations are economic and political, the science and the technology are done. If we get the economics and the politics right, we will accelerate that transition process.

Here’s why.

Domestic energy is already electrified

Homes were first electrified in the 1800s when its application was limited to lighting. Food preservation and climate control followed as soon as we applied technology to our basic needs. Today we rely on electricity for cleaning, entertainment, communication and more around the home.

In addition to the supply of electricity generated from fossil fuels, cooking and climate control, are the only domestic other energy sources that continue to rely on fossil fuels. With the exception of a few connoisseurs who insist on using gas fires, most domestic cooking can be done on electric stoves. And although electric fireplaces cannot replace the primal roar of a real fireplace, electric climate control is far more sophisticated.

The continued use of fossil fuels in homes, schools and other domestic facilities is entirely economical and political. Fossil fuels are cheap and already piped-in, so we use it. Electrifying cooking and heating is as easy as making the political decision to mandate it and take the economic hit. The environment has been taking a hit for decades; it is time we step up.

Industrial energy is largely electrified

Whilst our homes are functionally similar, our industries are very diverse. The energy needs of various industries dictate the level of electrification already achieved. Industrial sectors with large domesticated footprints such as assembly plants, warehouses, farms, etc. have energy needs that are similar to domestic energy use in type but on a larger scale. The continued use of fossil fuels in these sectors is similar to domestic use, and the solutions are the same.

It is in energy intensive industries such as steel and chemical production that continued reliance on fossil fuels remains a necessity. These industries rely on processes that generate very high heat that cannot be produced with electricity. We however, have ongoing research on the electrification of these industries and the use of hydrogen as replacement for fossil fuels in these industries is a solution worth pursuing.

Mobility is a mixed bag

Mobility is the lifeblood of our economy. It facilitates exchange between supply and demand—the sole levers of our economy. It is as essential to life as other critical life needs as without mobility, we can’t have a thriving society. It is no surprise that mobility accounts for a significant proportion of global energy consumption.

For many decades now, mobility has relied almost entirely on the use of fossil fuels. Our first mechanised mobility systems were fossil-fuel-based. Arriving on the back of the industrial revolution, our earliest mechanisation of mobility were all fossil-fuel-based, in the form of coal-powered steam engines. We have hardly moved on. We outgrew steam and expanded our fossil fuel line up.

On land, we replaced animal-powered mobility with the fossil fuel-based internal combustion engines. At sea, we went from sustainable, wind-powered vessels to the faster, fossil fuel-powered steam and then diesel boats. In the air, although hydrogen powered some of our earliest flights, fossil fuel-powered steam and internal combustion engines powered later flights.

Today the bulk of our mobility value chain is still powered by fossil fuels. But we now know how damaging our continued reliance on these fuels is to our environment. Electrification has brought both mordernisation and an opportunity to rely on sustainable energy sources, but we are a long way from electrifying our entire mobility value chain.

Rail was electrified decades ago

The electrification of the rail sector decades ago provides a template for success in other mobility sectors. Electrified trains competed with and eventually replaced fossil fuel-powered steam and internal combustion engines. Although diesel-powered trains are still in use across the world, they represent a smaller percentage of all trains. Electrification of the rail sector accelerated the introduction of better technology (think Maglevs) that delivered safer and faster trains.

Although the rail network is not as complex as road networks are, the gains that electrification brought-in can be studied and used in electrifying the passenger and heavy truck industry.

Passenger cars are being electrified

The dawn of the EV is truly upon us. EV adoption rates are rising at very high rates in all major economies across the world. Every major government now have policies on transitioning to EVs. Some have gone as far as setting aggressive targets of banning the sale of new non-EVs within the decade.

Manufactures are pivoting completely to EVs too. Every major car manufacturer on the planet has signalled a move into EVs. Like governments, some (like Volvo) are committed to transitioning completely to EVs within the decade whilst others like Tesla and Rivian were created as EV companies from the get go.

Consumers are also getting in on the act. As government policies drive manufacturers to offer EV options, and offer discounts to EV buyers, consumers are presented with a compelling choice to choose EVs. Far from the early days of weird-looking cars zipping through city streets with a quiet whine that was as off-putting as the view of the car itself, EVs today are modern and desirable. They are filled with the latest tech and consumers have come to love them.

Heavy trucks are ready for electrification

Planes and ships take far longer to build, and they stay in service longer than cars and trucks. They are significantly more complex as well and electrifying them will be a greater challenge. With a smaller cohort of manufacturers in the field and the enormous barriers to entry for new players, the likelihood of a Tesla-like disruptor is remote, and electrification will have to be led by the incumbents.

Electrification in these sectors may benefit from its heavy defence connections. Defence is a great driver of technology, and when they figure out how to electrify their fleet safely, it will trickle down into commercial use. Shipping will benefit from aircraft carriers and submarines, which run on sustainable nuclear fission. Aviation will benefit from advances made in the heavily funded, high-tech aerospace industry.

It will take time

The complete electrification of our energy value chain will take a long time to become reality. The obvious inertia points are technology, scale, economics and politics. We have made significant headway in technology and are primed for more breakthroughs. Scaling is largely a technological problem, and we have the infrastructures in place for transforming ideas from the labs to the factories and consumer’s hands.

Economics is the elephant in the room. It controls our ability to make choices, and we know it. Electrifying our entire energy value chain to a sustainable one will require significant investments. Committing to that investment whilst fossil fuels remain cheap is the political decisions our politicians must make for the sake of our environment and our own posterity.

Electrification of our entire energy value chain gives us an opportunity to concentrate all our efforts on ensuring that we produce that electricity sustainably. That singular focus may be our best approach to addressing global warming and its associated catastrophes. The science is clear, the technology is improving, the industry will move when called upon, and consumers will respond. It is time our politicians step up.

Tell them.